COVID-19 + Math = Perspective

Y'all should be worried. This self-proclaimed "word girl" is doing "math numbers" for a minute. See what the coronapocalypse has done to me? Be very afraid.

Check out this website: http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america. This site shows the COVID-19 death projections by August 4, 2020, assuming full social distancing through May 2020, for the United States. Another almost 8 weeks of social distancing? Yes, y'all, we can do that.

So this website estimates 81,766 deaths caused by COVID-19 in the United States. According to worldometers.info (however reliable that site is, though it is likely a very close estimation), the population of the United States is currently estimated at 330,552,344. Let's see how this looks when you make it all math-y:

81,766/330,552,344 = 0.000247

And if I'm able to go one step further, and put my mad 4th grade math skills to work by converting my answer from a decimal to a percentage, the result is 0.0247%. That's significantly less than 1/4 of 1%.

So if my math is correct, it tells me that significantly less than approximately 1/4 of 1% of Americans are projected to die from COVID-19.

While EVERY death is a HUGE and UNIMAGINABLE loss of someone's parent, child, grandparent, friend, neighbor, or co-worker, that number gives this entire pandemic a little bit of perspective to me.

Based on the media hype, it feels like we've been thrown into the midst of a pandemic close or equal to the most devastating pandemic ever recorded: The Spanish Flu of 1918.

Wikipedia estimates over 675,000 deaths in the United States from The Spanish Flu.

We're talking significantly less than 1/4 of 1% of Americans. We can probably agree that while the loss of 81,766 lives is incredibly devastating, it's not the same as losing 675,000+.

Even if we look at the highest point in the shaded area of uncertainty in the graph provided, we're still looking at a very small number:

136,401/330,552,344 = 0.000412

That's 0.00412%.

Y'all, I KNOW this pandemic is BAD. I know there are hotspots all over our country that are experiencing death and devastation the likes of which have never been seen before in our lifetimes.

But significantly less than 1/4 of 1%?

I guess what I'm saying is that I'm tired of living in a world overshadowed by fear, worry, and concern. Especially considering I will be 28 weeks pregnant tomorrow, and I have to take on the added anxiety that comes with bringing a new life into this world at such a chaotic time as this. But it was so nice for my non-math self to experience a tiny breath of fresh air from realizing we're talking about significantly less than 1/4 of 1% of our country's population succumbing to COVID-19.

Let's take a quick peek at the math for my home state of South Carolina, shall we?

See http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/south-carolina.

The site estimates 442 South Carolinians will die from COVID-19.

There are an estimated 5,210,095 people currently residing in South Carolina.

That math?

442/5,210,095 = 0.000084

That is a whopping 0.0084%.

And the worst-case scenario projections?

645/5,210,095 = 0.000123

That's 0.0123%.

I can barely even comprehend numbers this small.

You guys.

I'm not saying that COVID-19 isn't bad.

I'm not saying that the loss of lives is inconsequential.

I'm not saying there won't be a "second wave" or more that will result in a greater loss.

I'm not saying these projections are fact or reality or 100% to be expected.

I'm not saying the difficulties we all are experiencing right now should be shrugged off.

I'm saying we can be encouraged.

I'm saying we can get through this.

I'm saying we can try to look for the good in the midst of so.much.bad.

I'm saying we can get through this by the grace of God! He knows the numbers. He knows His plans. He knows when our lives will return to some semblance of normal.

We can hang in there.

We can follow the directives to keep our families safe... our neighbors safe... our communities safe... and our country safe.

I hope this has been somewhat encouraging to you!

I also want to take a moment to say that I simply do not have the words to adequately express my gratitude to the individuals across our country and across the globe working hard on the front lines -- putting their own lives at risk -- in fighting this undetectable, invisible enemy and saving countless lives. There truly are no words to properly express how much you mean to us all, and how grateful we all are for the work you are doing. God bless you and keep you safe!

Summer Catch Up: Beach Edition

We hit the beach in June for a little family day trip and it was a lot of fun! There's no commentary here -- just some adorable pics of my big kids!

Time

Time.

What a rare commodity. Seems I've been running short on it here lately.

And by lately, I mean the past 6 months or so.

My head is swirling with a zillion thoughts on how to get back some of this precious gift of time.

Give up my part-time job?

Walk away from my position with the PTA?

Get another mom to room parent my 1st grader's class?

Quit one of the few church ministries I've always been called to serve in? ((Oh, wait -- I already did that last month.))

:(

There are so many things I need more time for.

Time for my family.

Time to blog the events and milestones I don't want to forget.

Time to play with my kids.

Time to update my almost 6-month-old's (!!!) baby book.

Time to sew my kids' homemade Halloween costumes / dress up play clothes.

Time to clean my house. It's seriously filthy and overlooked.

Time to plan my precious boy's 4th birthday party.

Time to pray and pray and pray and pray some more over Chase's next heart surgery that will take place most likely in May.

Time to update the blog about Chase's cardiology appointment earlier today.

Time to cook healthy meals for my family.

Time to grocery shop.

Time to spend in God's word.

Time to actually date my husband (without 3 kids & a drive-thru on the agenda).

The list goes on and on and on. I'm sure every mom can relate. It's not easy to balance work, family, volunteering and other commitments that require our time. I give kudos to those moms who were wired with the ability to work a full-time job while raising a family and still manage everything else with ease. I'll fully admit I am NOT wired that way.

If you would've asked teenage me what I wanted to be when I grew up, the answer was always the same:

A wife and a mother.

I'm there now. I've arrived. But I'm letting too many distractions keep me from doing my best at these two incredibly important roles that I've waited so long to fulfill.

I find myself missing out on the two weeknights of quality family time that I'm home each week by sitting at my computer, putting the needs of my daughter's school ahead of my family.

I find myself missing out on the ministry opportunity of singing in the choir each Wednesday because I'm so tired and overwhelmed by life to find the strength or willingness to go.

I find myself missing out on the relaxing yet productive Saturdays at home with my family because I'm commuting and working for 10 of those precious hours every Saturday.

I find myself missing out of the joy of worshipping with my family and setting a good example for our kids by attending church on Sundays because I'm too tired from working the day before and am just so desperate for some "downtime" with my family.

I find myself missing out on sharing in special school events with my children because although I volunteered to help with both LO & Chase's field trips, I just realized tonight that they are BOTH next Friday.

With Chase's first 4th birthday party that night.

Followed by Chase's second 4th birthday party the following morning (What? If anyone deserves two parties, it's this Rock Star Heart Warrior of mine!).

Whoa.

If you've read this far, way to go! Regular readers will know I always keep it real here. I'm being incredibly open and transparent with my struggles tonight -- that's for sure! If for no other reason, it's a wee bit liberating to me to put my thoughts out here so I can come back later and see that maybe it wasn't really as bad as it felt like at the time. Maybe?? And brain dumping on my blog has always been a good source of release for my crazy. ;)

So thanks to those of you who made it to the end. I covet your prayers as I work through some difficult decisions in the days ahead. Your support means so much!

Now to try and fit in some time for a few hours of much-needed sleep.

G'nite!


- Posted from my beloved iPhone 5